Modelling and real time prediction of classical swinefever
نویسندگان
چکیده
We propose a new method to analyse outbreak data of an infectious disease such as classical swine fever. The underlying model is a two-type branching process. It is used to deduce information concerning the epidemic from detected cases. In particular, the method leads to prediction of the future course of the epidemic, and hence can be used as a basis for control policy decisions. We test the model with data from the big 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. It turns out that our results are in good agreement with the data.
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